In world theory and practice, since the 60s of the last century, the task of improving personnel management has been solved on the basis of taking into account such a factor of economic growth as "human capital", which complements the traditional classical factors - capital and labor. In 1992, G. Becker received the Nobel Prize in Economics, substantiating the effectiveness of investments in human capital and formulating an economic approach to human behavior.
The theory proved to be extremely fruitful. Many experts summarize that at present, based on the theory and practice of human capital, a successful paradigm for the development of the United States and leading European countries is being formed and improved. In particular, on this basis, Sweden, which was lagging behind, modernized its economy and returned its leadership positions in the world economy in the 2000s. Finland in a historically short period of time has managed to move from a resource-based to an innovative economy.
However, at present, the underestimation of this factor leads to a consistent shift in the center of gravity of the public management system, which leads it to a state of less and less stability in terms of the positive impact of the management system on socio-economic processes.
Most likely, this trend is due to two multidirectional factors. On the one hand, there is a decrease in the role and a consistent refusal in modern management in market conditions from a systematic approach to justifying and analyzing decision-making. In our opinion, this is the main factor in reducing the quality of management.
On the other hand, ignoring the factor of human capital, which is quite understandable, since innovative ideas are hard to perceive by overbureaucratized management, unless there are sufficiently strong justifications for their effectiveness for socio-economic processes. Objectively, such conservatism is justified, since we are talking about unproductive spending by the state and business on education and the growth of the professional level of managerial personnel, spending on healthcare services, a wide range of social programs, etc.
In this regard, the urgent task is to search, form and constantly improve the methodology for assessing the impact of the human capital factor on economic growth. The complexity of this task is determined by the fact that, in principle, there are no and cannot be methods of direct assessment, such as the profitability of fixed assets, the productivity of living and materialized labor, etc.
In world practice, various methods of indirect, indirect accounting of the human capital factor are used, among which the approach based on econometric modeling is quite effective.
We will try to derive some estimates of the effectiveness of the main factors of production (capital and labor) and the factor of human capital in their comparison based on the derivation and analysis of an econometric model of economic diversification.
As a factor of human capital, it is advisable, in our opinion, to apply a narrower factor of intellectual capital, which determines the cost of education, advanced training and social packages for the managerial contingent of central and local executive bodies, or in other words, civil servants, on which the degree of training depends and quality of decisions made.